The Conservatives are expected to have a majority in Parliament with a possible 357 seats, according to an updated BBC forecast. The forecast, based on the exit poll and declared results, puts Labour on 201 seats, the SNP on 55 and the Liberal Democrats on 13. Plaid Cymru is forecast to win four seats and the Green Party to hold their single seat. The Brexit Party is not forecast to win any seats.Enter your postcode to find out what the exit poll currently forecasts for your constituency. This may change as results come in and the forecast is updated.
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If you can’t see the exit poll search box, tap here.What is the exit poll?The exit poll is a way of forecasting what may happen in the general election, after voting ends but before the results are known.Researchers at 144 polling stations across England, Scotland and Wales ask people to indicate which way they voted. Scotland has only 12 sampling points so the exit poll here is harder to forecast than in other parts of the country. A team of academics led by Sir John Curtice, professor of politics at Strathclyde University, use this and other data to estimate the vote share per party in each constituency and then to forecast each party’s likelihood of winning in any given seat.All those individual probabilities are added together to arrive at the forecast seat totals for each party.
The Brexit Party
The model is updated throughout the night as results come in, so seat totals and individual constituencies are likely to change. Constituencies where independent Conservatives are standing are harder to predict than typical seats. How to use this featureThe constituency search and seat-by-seat list show exit poll forecasts for individual constituencies, apart from those in Northern Ireland.If the chance of the forecast outcome in a seat is 95% or higher, it is shown as a “likely” outcome. If it is between 80% and 94%, it’s a “possible” outcome.Seats where the probability for any particular party winning is lower than 80% are shown as “too close to forecast”.The exit poll gives an indication of what may happen but, of course, the real result in each seat isn’t known until the official declaration – at which point the information here will update when you refresh the page.Counting all the seats predicted for a particular party in the seat-by-seat view is unlikely to match the total for that party in the current forecast section.This is because the seat totals are calculated by adding up the probabilities for that party, not by counting the number of predicted constituency wins. Seats categorised as “too close to forecast” are not assigned to a party in the seat-by-seat view.How accurate is the exit poll?Exit poll methodology (University of Warwick)Produced by Christine Jeavans, design by Natalie Smart, development by Marcos Gurgel and Scott Jarvis.